By Iain Macleod, Institution of Engineers in Scotland
THE need for energy is as ubiquitous to our society as that of food, water
and shelter.
Without electricity, our provision of those necessities becomes hugely
affected – no boilers for heating, no light, no ovens. And that is just the
tip of the iceberg.
Globally, we are facing serious problems relating to the environment and to
energy resource depletion. The drive for a reduction in CO2 emissions has
led to a significant change in the energy sector, most notably through the
closure of thermal generation stations, and growth of intermittent
renewable generation. This combination of changes means we have an
electricity system that is potentially less stable, with an increasing
probability of system-wide failure.
When the electricity system was designed, it had enough spare capacity to
cope with spikes in demand. However, this network consisted mainly of
thermal generators, and as we close these down and replace them with
generation from intermittent renewable sources, insufficient consideration
has been given to what impact this may have on the bigger picture.
Solar and wind-powered generators are unable to create the necessary levels
of energy on a dark day with low wind in the middle of winter. This puts
more pressure on the other parts of the system, and, due to the
interdependent nature of the parts of an electricity system, changes to one
part can have significant impacts throughout the system.
Integrating renewable energy sources to the system means added cost, due to
the need for extra generation and storage to safeguard security of supply,
the facilities required to ensure the system is stable, extra transmission
facilities, and energy losses over power lines from remote locations. While
the cost to produce energy from renewable sources is forecast to fall, the
cost of integration of such generation to the electricity system will
increase.
Currently, changes are being planned and implemented for parts of our
energy system, but proper consideration is not being given to the impact of
such changes on other parts and on overall performance.
To put it simply, we are removing parts of the electricity system (thermal
stations) and replacing them with new generation types (intermittent
renewables), without looking holistically at the impact of this. We need to
take a step back, look at the overall picture, put all energy sources on
the table to review, and consider the most effective approach to reducing
emissions, maintaining security of supply and operation, and managing cost.
We need informed decision-making for all energy planning based on advanced
modelling methods.
What we need is a brain trust like that of Bletchley Park.
We need to establish a multidisciplinary group of highly skilled experts to
adopt professional engineering methods for energy planning, meaning an
integrated, comprehensive approach involving advanced system modelling
methods is used to design and future-proof electricity infrastructure.
Issues relating to planning for the electricity system are highly
technical, and the professional expertise of power systems engineers is
vital to address them properly.
At the Institution of Engineers in Scotland (IESIS) we recently published a
report called Engineering for Energy: A proposal for governance of the
energy system, which calls for the creation of a not-for-profit national
energy authority. A parliamentary commission should be appointed, as a
matter of urgency, to establish how the authority should be constituted.
A national electricity system using new sources of generation, such as
renewables, needs new technologies and capabilities.
A different type of intelligence may be needed from that required to break
an Ultra code, but a gathering of Turing-like minds may be just what we
need to crack the code of Britain’s energy enigma.
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