As the UK’s Brexit negotiations reach their endgame, Emmanuel Macron’s Napoleon complex has been on full display. The diminutive French president seems determined to derail the talks, appealing to tub-thumbing voters who like bashing les rosbifs.
Ahead of next summer’s regional elections, and the 2022 presidential contest, Macron is vying with Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National for blue-collar support from those who rally around the flag of French nationalism.
That explains his outlandish demand that the UK continues to grant EU boats existing fishing rights, around two thirds of the catch in British waters, for at least the next 10 years.
But even that sounds reasonable compared with Macron’s earlier threat that the EU will launch a devastating energy embargo against Britain if we refuse to capitulate not just on fishing, but other disputed areas like state aid and the “level playing field”.
The mooted blockade would not only deny UK energy exporters access to EU markets but cut “top-up access” to European electricity and gas pipelines into Britain as well. That risks a supply squeeze during peak winter demand, potentially halting energy imports from Europe altogether.
The idea of a Putin-style UK-EU energy boycott is ridiculous, even amid a high-stakes negotiation inevitably involving much chest-puffing and brinkmanship.
Yes, interconnectors from France, Belgium and Holland have supplied around a tenth of the UK’s electricity this year – and the share can be higher during peak usage. But that’s because imported energy is sometimes slightly cheaper, not because Britain lacks back-up capacity of its own.
The prospect of a French-led energy embargo is particularly mad given that EDF – majority-owned by the French government – is among Britain’s leading domestic energy producers.
EDF not only owns 35 wind farms across Britain but runs all eight of the UK’s operational nuclear power stations, generating almost a fifth of our electricity. So for Macron to even suggest cutting UK-EU energy ties is an act of unfathomably commercial folly.
And the French president’s threat could yet look even more ridiculous once the Government publishes its long-awaited energy white paper, expected in the next few days.
It’s over a decade since the last such white paper. Given the strategic importance of energy supplies to an advanced economy like Britain, and rapid recent technological advances, the lack of a strategic energy framework for providers and investors has gone on far too long.
The white paper’s central aim will be to put Britain on a path towards decarbonising our entire energy system. Coal use in UK power plants has already plunged from 54m tons in 2012 to under 3m last year. But we’ll be shifting away from oil and gas too.
In 2019, Britain became the first major economy to pass a “net-zero” law, requiring us to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net-zero by 2050. This white paper, then, will stress Downing Street’s environmental credentials, arguing the green energy agenda also means new infrastructure construction and solid jobs.
The emphasis will be on catalysing investment in non-carbon electricity generation, plus energy storage and battery technology – phasing out fossil fuels not just from power generation, but transport and heat as well. There should also be more encouragement for niche markets full of potential, not least hydrogen fuel cells.
Set against all this, the Tories will need to make clear decarbonisation won’t be achieved on the back of cash-strapped firms and households. End-user energy costs must be kept down over the coming years, to retain both votes and business competitiveness.
Ahead of next November’s UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) in Glasgow, though, Boris Johnson wants to position post-Brexit Britain as leading the world in the move away from fossil fuels. And the politics of that effort will likely dominate the response to this energy white paper when it finally sees the light of day. The big story, though, could be nuclear.
Back in 2018, the Government’s National Infrastructure Commission suggested just one more major nuclear facility should be built beyond the new plant EDF is currently constructing at Hinkley Point in Somerset.
Then, in September, further doubts were raised over Britain’s nuclear future, when Hitachi walked away from plans to build a plant in Anglesey, citing the “severe” investment environment created by Covid-19.
This followed Toshiba abandoning plans for a new nuclear facility in Cumbria in 2018. On top of this, when Johnson outlined his 10-point plan for a green industrial revolution in mid-November, he didn’t mention large-scale nuclear reactors, even though all the UK’s existing operational plants are due to be decommissioned by 2035.
Despite all that, nuclear power developers could well renew plans for UK investment once this energy white paper is published. A paper issued by the Treasury late last month stressed the UK should maintain energy options “by pursuing additional large-scale nuclear projects”, with industry observers struck by the use of the plural.
While environmental purists shun atomic energy, many now accept the industry’s hugely improved safety record means nuclear can make a major contribution to decarbonisation – “filling the renewables gap when the wind doesn’t blow”.
The reality is that wind power, while accounting for almost a quarter of UK electricity last year, remains expensive, as well as intermittent.
The mutual benefits of UK-EU energy collaboration are enormous. Energy trade is physically based and meets essential needs. Cross-Channel systems are linked by real-time trade in electricity and gas, common technology and pan-European companies – along with universal environmental concerns.
Macron’s use of the energy card perhaps smacks of desperation. Certainly, the European Commission has confirmed that, even under a “no-deal” scenario, “electricity and gas interconnectors can of course still be used”. In May, EDF applied for planning permission to build a new plant at Sizewell in Suffolk. With the Chinese out of favour, the French giant could become even more dominant across the UK’s nuclear industry.
If Macron showed more willing on fishing rights, governance and other disputed areas, lifting his Napoleonic veto on a free trade agreement, the French could profit mightily from the wholesale upgrade of the UK’s nuclear infrastructure. C’est une situation gagnant-gagnant, Emmanuel. What les rosbifs call a “win-win”.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/12/13/macrons-best-bet-real-nuclear-option/
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