THE UK has recently been experiencing high atmospheric pressure and
dropping temperatures. Consequently we have been maxing out on our power
import capability from Europe, presently 4000MW, have restarted ageing coal
power stations and highly-polluting Open Cycle Gas Turbines to support
rising demand of typically 40000MW and upped gas generation to around
20000MW as our onshore and offshore wind generation with around installed
capacity of 24000MW collapsed. In the dull weather, resultant very low
solar generation output was dipping below 5% of installed capacity of from
our approximately 12,000MW. Scotland had to periodically import
significantly from England.
Irrespective of what is said in the imminent Government White Paper, the
writing is clearly on the wall for the present direction of the UK’s energy
provision.
All bar one of our existing seven nuclear power stations which provide
essential rotational inertia that protects frequency during grid
disturbances will be shut by 2030, losing us around 12 per cent of our
baseload power capacity. Government dialogue on a second new nuclear power
station at Sizewell C – potentially also supplied by the French like
Hinckley Point C – has recently gone quiet. One could presume it is being
dangled behind closed doors as a Brexit negotiating tool but in any case
would not be up and running before the others shut. Already ditched are the
further six first envisioned by the Government in 2010.
Meanwhile the UK Electricity System Operator (ESO) has, since mid-October,
been indicating “tight margins” and “unusually low wind output” combined
with ageing generator maintenance threatening supply balancing, which
comments caused electricity prices to rise. Shortly after the Prime
Minister’s recently announcement of future commitment to huge new offshore
wind generation, National Grid, ESO’s owners, issued two Electricity Margin
Notices appealing for more power. Hence we restarted coal. ESO Director
Fintan Slye commented that it was now “way more complex” to keep the UK
lights on and that the Grid had anticipated wind farm output of 16% of
installed capacity at this time of year. Actual output was lower. Sustained
wind output of under 2% of demand was experienced.
National Grid is also facing a £66.6 million fine from Ofgem as a result of
“poor quality of its electricity networks business plan” and a further
£26.4m fine in respect of its gas networks plan reported recently in the
technical press.
Ofgem also observed that these fines would have aggregated around £220m had
it not recently applied a cap.
SSE’s Scottish Hydro Electricity Transmission is also reportedly facing
Ofgem fines.
We should question whether this money would be better directed at trying to
properly engineer and fund UK Grid modelling and future system planning
whilst addressing net zero challenges, offsetting what we, the consumer,
are invoiced annually by National Grid to fund its investment plans. Ofgem,
curiously, had proposed halving said investment.
Without really serious and focused engineering by all we remain unlikely to
significantly approach the UK net zero objective and internecine warring is
not helping.
And this at the height of a pandemic.
DB Watson, Cumbernauld
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