There has been a total collapse of the UK wind fleet output that coincides
with the public debates on nuclear generation choices and fracking.
Once again this month as a result of the enjoyable late summer weather the
UK has suffered several sustained and virtually complete collapses in its
wind fleet output throughout at least 11 of the past 20 days of this month
that I randomly checked.
The total installed wind fleet capacity in the UK as of last autumn was
12GW and has continued to increase since then as more turbines are
commissioned.
At 10.40 on Saturday the UK total wind output was 0.15GW. This met 0.49 per
cent of the UK’s needs and meant that windfarms were producing less than
1.25 per cent of their installed capacity.
This is equivalent to 6.7 per cent of the capacity of Longannet and,
whatever proportion of it was generated in Scotland, it would be unlikely
to have met the combined demand of our hospitals.
Throughout this month, our power imports from the continent continued at
their present maximum interlink capacity of 3 GW (mostly French nuclear),
meaning imports were 20 times greater than Saturday’s total wind generation.
The UK demand on Saturday was just over 30GW and in mid winter this could
climb to around 55GW.
Ofgem forecast no more than an eight per cent margin in UK electricity
availability over demand this winter if it is “average” weather, assuming
the imports from the continent remain at the maximum of 3GW. Without
imports our margin will only be two per cent. The French are making no
promises as to availability. The sobering reality is that we will always
continue to face periods of several consecutive days when the entire UK
wind fleet, never mind just the Scottish wind fleet, will not produce
anything like the capability of a Longannet.
There remain also considerable technical doubts within the electrical
engineering profession as to whether Scotland’s interconnections to the
rest of the UK, whilst being “reinforced” in the longer term, will be
capable of responding adequately after Longannet’s closure, to prevent
large scale supply interruptions in Scotland in the near future.
I invite the power companies to provide their calculations and results data
that demonstrate they have produced rigorous power system analyses through
cross-company liaison and whether these confirm future electricity supplies
in Scotland and the wider UK are no less secure than
when the industry was privatised or demonstrate predicted heightened
probability of interruptions.
DB Watson,
Saviskaill,
Langdales Ave,
Cumbernauld.
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