The Scientific Alliance has published the second paper by Dr Capell Aris
and Colin Gibson analysing the National Grid’s latest Future Energy
Scenarios study.
These two highly experienced experts conclude that continued expansion of
renewable energy would be considerably more expensive than building more
gas or nuclear capacity in the medium term.
Colin Gibson, former Power Network Director for National Grid, said:
“Building 10GW of highly flexible open cycle gas turbines to provide a
secure supply of electricity would cost £3.6 billion.
“This seems a bargain compared to the projected £11 billion to be spent on
programme of ‘smart’ meter installation, particularly as the benefits of
this are already being called into question.”
Capell Aris, who has extensive experience in the supply industry, pointed
out that many of the assumptions used by National Grid are questionable.
He said: “The figures provided by DECC underestimate the real cost of
building more wind farms, while overestimating the cost of building more
nuclear power stations. The new Hinkley Point C nuclear plant is an
unnecessarily expensive way to add capacity – but even this looks like a
bargain compared to wind farms”.
The ‘Gone Green’ scenario presented by National Grid is almost twice as
expensive per unit of electricity generated as building the necessary
number of either gas- or nuclear-fuelled power stations.
At the same time, the previous report made it clear that the push for
renewables would put security of supply in severe jeopardy. The proposed
refocussing towards gas and nuclear generation would in fact be
considerably less expensive than any of the four scenarios considered in
the National Grid study.
Any future energy policy must provide a secure supply at a cost that does
not disadvantage the nation’s economic health, while minimising the
environmental impact. At present, it seems that all the attention is being
put on the environmental aspects, particularly in terms of reducing carbon
dioxide emissions.
Unfortunately, the need for conventional backup of wind and solar farms
reduces their impact on emissions while pushing up costs and threatening
energy security.
The authors conclude that energy policy needs to be rethought from first
principles using the expertise of engineers who understand all three
aspects fully.
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