By Sandra Dick
Scotland’s future electricity supplies are being put at risk due to
failures by ministers to fully explore the consequences of relying on
renewable energies.
The Energy Strategy Group of The Institution of Engineers in Scotland (IES)
says there is a “lack of attention to engineering issues” by Westminster
and Holyrood governments, and ambitious targets for achieving net zero
electricity supplies to power the nation which have not been clearly
thought through.
It warns that thermal power stations are being closed and confidence placed
on wind and solar energy without proper safety analysis of their
reliability and full consideration of what would happen to the electricity
supply when the wind does not blow and the sun does not shine.
The group also says voices which dare to question the rapid switch to
renewables or highlight potential risks are often shouted down by a vocal
green contingent and branded ‘climate change deniers’.
The result is that a potentially constructive debate which could spotlight
problem areas and suggest alternative routes to a lower carbon energy
landscape, is being stifled, they say.
The IES Strategy Group insists it is not against renewable energy or the
use of wind energy to feed into the National Grid. However, it warns of an
urgent need to address the complex technical issues that come with
inserting intermittent renewables into the nation’s power supply.
It has called for a national independent multi-disciplinary energy group
including people with a range of skills and backgrounds – similar to the
UK’s Covid-19 vaccine task force – to coordinate an effective plan for the
nation’s future power supply.
A particular concern for the IES is the reliance on renewables to restore
power in the event of a total or partial shutdown of the national
electricity transmission system. Although rare, such a catastrophic
situation affecting a large geographic area would require complex
restoration procedures typically involving gas turbines which can operate
quickly to restore power.
There are worries that a lack of suitable types of generator for such a
difficult ‘black start’ situation could see towns and cities plunged into
darkness for several days – raising the possibility of risks to health, and
major economic and environment implications.
Iain MacLeod, of the IES, said the Westminster and Holyrood governments’
approaches are “deeply unsatisfactory” but are being replicated around the
world as governments embrace renewable alternatives to fossil fuels.
Mr Macleod warned that governments are “allowing the electricity system to
become increasingly unreliable”, with decisions based on what appears to be
the right thing to do, rather than on reliable evidence.
“On one side we have people who believe that what needs to be done – ramp
up renewables – is glaringly obvious and that carrying out studies to show
that this is the way forward will hold back progress towards the goal,” he
said.
“On the other side are people who believe that adding wind and solar to the
system while closing down thermal stations is a very unsatisfactory
strategy – that deep technical analysis of the situation is essential.
“It is like an optical illusion. Some interpret the image in one way and
others see it quite differently, and it is very difficult to get your ‘eye’
to see the other interpretation.”
The IES, a multi-disciplinary engineering body founded in 1857, says
closing reliable generation sources while increasing intermittent wind and
solar generation is “pushing the system towards becoming intrinsically
unreliable.”
It points to 1926, when the government decided to drive ahead with the
concept of a national grid, requiring substantial investment and
reorganisation of the country’s electricity systems.
The complexities of the challenge were examined by an independent group
which oversaw construction and operation of the new system. The grid was
created, and the cost of electricity decreased significantly.
All the UK’s 14 remaining coal-fired powered stations are due to close by
2024, while Scotland’s two nuclear plants, Torness, in East Lothian, and
Hunterston B, in Ayrshire, will only remain operational until 2023.
SSE Thermal and Equinor recently revealed plans to jointly develop
Peterhead’s gas-fired power station as a low-carbon station, making it
potentially one of the UK’s first to be equipped with carbon capture
technology.
Options to support intermittent renewable energy such as carbon capture and
storage, hydrogen and nuclear are being explored however, there are
concerns that there is a lack of the coordination, collaboration and
critical thinking that would come from an ‘engineered’ approach.
The IES suggests the introduction of renewables should be seen as a
‘safety-critical’ project similar to certain construction projects which
involve several safety procedures aimed at protecting against the risk of
economic, environmental and physical harm.
“There should be an independent multi-disciplinary group who would treat
the electricity system as ‘safety-critical’ and use the full powers of
modern technology to work out the best way forward,” Mr MacLeod added.
Energy policy is largely reserved to UK Government, however the Scottish
Government works with Westminster counterparts and the National Grid,
network companies and energy regulator Ofgem to promote outcomes that are
consistent with its energy strategy.
The Scottish Energy Networks Strategic Leadership Group, which includes
several representatives of energy businesses among its members, provides
advice and recommendations concerning the move to Scotland’s net zero by
2045 target.
Cara Dalziel, Policy Manager at Scottish Renewables, said: “The Scottish
Energy Networks Strategic Leadership Group, which is co-chaired by industry
expert Professor Keith Bell, as well as a number of others, already oversee
Scotland’s transition to the low-carbon energy system we need to replace
ageing, dirty fossil fuel power stations and tackle the carbon emissions
which cause climate change.
“Renewable energy projects bring economic and social benefits, and are the
cheapest source of energy anywhere on the planet. Replacing old power
stations with anything else simply does not make sense.
“At a UK level, renewables like wind, solar, hydro and more generate around
40% of our electricity – a tenfold increase since 2004 – and National Grid
Electricity System Operator has said that by 2025 it will be able to use
‘innovative systems, products and services to ensure that the network is
ready to handle 100% zero carbon’.”
A UK Government spokesperson said: “Even though we are completely committed
to expanding our already world-leading renewable energy industry, we are
definitely not over-reliant on these forms of energy.
“Indeed, ensuring that homes and businesses in Scotland have the certainty
of secure energy supplies now and in the future is an absolute priority.
“There is broad consensus that we are seeking the right energy mix for the
future and our range of energy sources – including renewables, nuclear and
gas – means there is no risk of the lights going out even when the wind
isn’t blowing and the sun isn’t shining.” https://www.heraldscotland.com/…/19321643.tilting…/
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