NATIONAL Grid (NG), the private system operator of our high voltage
electricity grid publicly issued two documents to the UK generating
companies in June entitled System Needs and Product Strategy and Future
Balancing Service. Drafted by engineers for engineers they clearly set out
the very major problems that the grid is facing between now and 2022. They
are an erudite summary of chaos.
It appears more than optimistic that post-consultation results are targeted
by the end of September.
NG is clear that most of its rescue proposals are not yet significantly
researched or ready for deployment. It looks unlikely, given that some
development will be iterative, that the necessary improvements can be
established by its target of January 2019 with deployment by 2022.
The NG report worryingly talks of “aspiration” “ambition” and “commitment”
thereby highlighting the complete absence of a functioning, independent
electricity modelling and forward-planning authority in the UK.
When John Kennedy set the aspirational target of manned flight to the Moon
the commitment was met and supported by planned, structured, research and
finance in order to achieve it. Currently in the UK we can call on neither.
NG does, however, identify that there is no longer an elephant in the
renewables room. There is now a herd.
Major concerns comprise;
Diminishing inertia (rotational energy) in the network following retirement
of large power stations causing lack of control of the Rate of Change of
Frequency as supply/demand balance becomes increasingly susceptible to
renewables surges or collapse.
Wider frequency response control difficulties because “the grid now needs
response that acts faster than we have today” which “need to be designed
and implemented”.
Avoidance of voltage collapse as we progressively reduce the capability to
locally control wattless power which may lead to countrywide construction
of large-scale synchronous compensators to offset .
The threat to the UK’s ability to re-start areas of the country after a
major fault (Black Start) as big power stations close. (The industry has
yet to demonstrate that this is solvable.)
Reduction in reserve power now “needed to meet frequency response so this
capacity is lost to reserve … to cover unexpected losses” , for example
wind turbine output collapse and upward reserve power needs of 4GW today
rising to 10GW by 2021/22 ( equivalent to 10 Tornesses.) Additionally, the
present interconnector trading arrangements with Europe change in Q3 2018
from three hours ahead to just one hour, “introducing increased uncertainty
in our generation and demand”.
By 2021/2 , the grid is forecast to incur a Rate of Change of Frequency
control risk that will be “too high” over 25per cent of the year requiring
it to reduce losses and/or dump wind and start up synchronous generation.
Today that figure is around two per cent.
NG strategy is to establish a “Balancing Services Market” with the
generating companies on a “you build and we’ll contract for the services”
approach.
So who will ultimately pay for this?
Our politicians should consider inviting NG to give them a brief, and
sobering, talk through reality.
DB Watson,
Saviskaill,
Langdales Avenue, Cumbernauld.
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