Constraints on technology innovation are on the horizon for onshore wind turbines, according to research from Wood Mackenzie.

Further cost reductions could occur in the sector, but the “low hanging fruit has already been picked”, the research said.

Additional reductions will be marginal and dependent on the extended value chain as turbines reach maturity, it added.

Wood Mackenzie head of global wind research Dan Shreve said: “Ground-breaking technology advancements are generally in the offshore wind sector as opposed to the onshore industry.

“Key evolutionary changes in turbine tower design, blade materials and controls will cause further reductions in onshore wind’s LCOE, however none can be considered true game changers,” he said.

Wood Mackenzie said three key themes for the onshore wind sector in the 2020s are a final round of consolidation, repowering running into recycling issues and investment needed in transmission.

Shreve said: “In some ways, the wind energy market is beginning to resemble the natural gas CCGT market.

“The final wave of consolidation is already upon us within wind turbine OEM ranks.

“Senvion has folded, Suzlon is under fire from investors in India and Enercon is reeling after the collapse of the German onshore market.

“Siemens acquired Gamesa in 2017, while Vestas joined ranks with Mitsubishi Heavy in 2013.

“The Nordex group will likely come back into play once the US market comes back down to earth in 2023, which will add an additional strain on western turbine OEMs who are locked out of a booming Chinese market.

“If regional giants fall prey to global corporations, it is feasible that 98% of the western wind market will fall under the control of three companies.

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