By Alistair Grant Political Correspondent
SCOTLAND faces difficult and costly decisions when it comes to securing its
future energy supply amid ongoing efforts to fight climate change, a new
report has found.
The Royal Society of Edinburgh said there is “no silver bullet” that will
create jobs and keep costs down while limiting the impact on the environment.
It comes as the sector prepares for the closure of Scotland’s two remaining
nuclear power stations, Hunterston B in North Ayrshire and Torness in
Dunbar, by 2030.
This is expected to result in a shortfall of electricity generation at a
time when demand is set to rise, and potentially coincides with the first
wave of offshore wind farms coming to the end of their life.
Meanwhile, the Scottish Government wants to slash greenhouse gas emissions
to net-zero by 2045, with major energy companies continuing to plough
millions into alternative sources.
However, the RSE said “no energy policy, no matter how well considered,
will ever solve all of the problems and paradoxes of energy supply and use”.
Its report, which follows a two-year investigation, called for the
establishment of an independent expert advisory commission on energy.
It noted: “The reality of where we find ourselves…is that the planned
closures of both of Scotland’s remaining nuclear power stations by 2030
will see Scotland lose the source of generation for almost 43 per cent of
its electricity, going into a period where it is widely expected that
demand for electricity will increase.
“This is occurring alongside a Scottish Government commitment to generate
half of overall energy consumption from renewable sources by 2030. This
target is laudable, but very ambitious. In 2015 over 87% of Scotland’s
total energy consumption could be attributed to fossil fuels or nuclear power.
“Difficult decisions must be made on how to address this future shortfall,
which was around 37% of consumption in 2015. Either significant additional
generating capacity will need to be built, an unprecedented reduction in
demand facilitated, or the amount of energy imported from outside Scotland
will need to rise markedly.”
More than half (51.7%) of the electricity generated in Scotland in 2017
came from the renewables sector, with nuclear power accounting for more
than a third (36.6%). Meanwhile, 10.5% came from fossil fuel sources, while
hydro power made up the remaining 1.2%.
The RSE report examined the advantages and drawbacks of different methods
of generating electricity.
It said “significant reserves and resources of oil and gas remain” but
continuing to extract these would exacerbate the climate crisis.
Nuclear energy, meanwhile, has zero carbon emissions at the point of
generation but would incur significant costs and present other challenges.
And while Scotland has “considerable” wind energy resources, the variable
nature of the resource means significant investment in large-scale storage,
or another form of generation, would also be required.
Elsewhere, the electrification of transport and heat could slash carbon
emissions but may require more than doubling Scotland’s electricity
generating capacity and substantial new infrastructure.
The report said: “No silver bullet exists that will vastly reduce carbon
emissions, have no environmental impact, and create jobs, all while
remaining affordable and allowing the public the freedom to live their
lives as they choose.
“Difficult choices must be made, and these choices will inevitably have
consequences.”
It contuned: “A decision that provides ample energy at a low cost could
also result in irreparable damage to the environment, and hence to
viability of life and the stability of societies.”
The RSE report stressed the need for timely investment decisions by the
Scottish and UK governments, as well as the prioritisation of climate
protection targets. It also recommended investing in low-carbon energy
generating capacity and cutting energy demand, and called on the Scottish
and UK governments to improve political cooperation.
Sir Muir Russell, chair of the inquiry, said energy is a “highly complex
area of policy”.
He said: “The reality is that no energy policy will ever solve all the
problems and paradoxes of energy supply and use.”
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